2022 - 2023 H5N1 Bird Flu Modeling and Prediction in the United States

This report presents an analysis of the likelihood of H5N1 outbreaks in different counties of the United States in March 2023 using logistic regression, ridge regression, lasso regression, ridge & lasso regression models. The models were trained using historical data from January 2022 to March 2023, and the accuracy of the models in predicting H5N1 outbreaks in March 2023 is about 99.348%. The ridge & lasso regression model performed the best among the four models, with an AUC of 0.7959950. The map generated based on the ridge & lasso regression model indicated that counties in the north and west were at a higher risk of having H5N1 outbreaks in March 2023, which matched the actual result. The report concludes that there are limitations to the models, including the consideration of only a limited set of factors affecting the spread of the virus and the use of historical data. Future work could incorporate additional data sources and use more sophisticated machine learning techniques to improve the accuracy of the models. The report also proposes some possible remedies to help control the spread of H5N1.